The Value of Precision in Probability Assessment: Evidence from a Large-Scale Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament
Publication information:
Jeffrey A. Friedman, Joshua D. Baker, Barbara A. Mellers, Philip E. Tetlock, and Richard Zeckhauser. 2018. “The Value of Precision in Probability Assessment: Evidence from a Large-Scale Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament”. International Studies Quarterly, 62, Pp. 410-22